Let's say we write an application that can use multiple forecasts from different sources. It does not really matter what type of data we are talking about, ofc. it can be weather forecast, stock price forecast, and so on... The main thing here, that we can have multiple time periods, for example .5h, 3h, 9h, 1d, 3d, 30d, etc... Usually the longer the period, the less accurate the forecast is. What I struggle with that I don't know what is the best practice by sending notifications.
It would be nice to send a notification as early as possible, but it would be bad to make mistakes and send out false notifications. For example I could notify the user 3 days before the predicted event, but 1 day before it I could cancel the whole thing, because the 1 day forecast says that it won't happen. Later I could send a notification again, that I was wrong by cancelling it, and it will happen in 30 mins. When the users prepare for an event for hours, then this would be a really bad scenario, because they would miss the event. The other bad scenario that I don't send out a cancellation notification and the event does not happen, while they prepared for it for hours. It would be nice to avoid both somehow. Any ideas?